The Europäische Zentralbank on 30 October 2026 the results of the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter. The results show that short- and medium-term inflation expectations for the euro area were revised upwards compared with the previous survey. At the same time, longer-term expectations remain anchored at 2.0 per cent The publication is available on the website of the Banco de España and is summarised by the Deutsche Bundesbank.
According to the European Central Bank, the professionals surveyed attribute the upward revisions mainly to rising energy prices and their indirect effects. The survey therefore signals that external price pressures can slow the disinflationary trend without loosening the anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations. Stability at 2.0 per cent is considered a benchmark for monetary policy.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is a quarterly survey of professional forecasters. It complements the projections of institutions in the euro area and is monitored by markets and central banks as an indicator of expectations for inflation and growth. The results are not a forecast by the central bank, but bring together the views of participants. The survey makes no statements about future monetary policy; decisions remain the responsibility of the ECB Governing Council and are based on additional data on the real economy and prices.
For Spain, the revision to inflation expectations in the euro area does not mean an automatic rise in domestic prices. However, the finding increases attention to possible second-round effects in wage negotiations, as well as to trends in energy import costs and financing conditions. Spanish institutions, including the Banco de España, refer in their communications to the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a supplementary source of information. It is one of several sources underpinning economic policy assessments.
Overall, the latest survey presents a mixed picture: higher short-term price pressures in the euro area, but a longer-term expectations anchor that remains aligned with 2.0 per cent. While this combination reduces the risk of expectations becoming unanchored, it also points to greater uncertainty in the near term. The implications for monetary policy will be assessed at upcoming meetings of the European Central Bank.
Editor: Phillipe Schmidt-Araguin (Article created with AI assistance).