The Europäische Zentralbank on 18 September 2026 Results of the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for the survey period 6 to 24 August 2026 have been published. They show that consumers’ median inflation expectations in the eurozone rose both for the next twelve months and over a three-year horizon. Expectations for nominal income growth and household spending over the next twelve months, by contrast, remained broadly unchanged. The Banco de España published the statement in Spanish.
In detail, median perceived inflation over the previous twelve months was unchanged in August, at 3.5 per cent. The median expectation for the inflation rate over the next twelve months rose to 3.0 per cent, from 2.9 per cent in July. Expectations over a three-year horizon rose to 2.9 per cent, from 2.7 per cent in July. Measured uncertainty about expectations for the next twelve months fell, but remains above the level seen before recent geopolitical tensions.
Patterns by income group and age cohort remain familiar: households in the lower income quintiles report higher perceived inflation and expectations than those in the upper quintiles. Respondents aged 18 to 34 consistently reported lower figures than the 35–54 and 55–70 age groups.
For income and consumption, the median expectation for nominal income growth over the next twelve months remained at 1.0 per cent. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous twelve months edged up to 5.2 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in July. Expected spending over the next twelve months was unchanged at 3.6 per cent. The expected unemployment rate in twelve months fell compared with July; the specific median figure is given in the survey dataset.
In the residential property sector, expectations for price movements and mortgage interest rates twelve months ahead were broadly stable. At the same time, the share of households reporting tighter access to credit over the previous twelve months fell; so did the share expecting stricter conditions over the next twelve months.
The slightly higher median inflation expectations, alongside stable income expectations, are significant for eurozone monetary policy. The European Central Bank provides detailed breakdowns of the results on its data portal and announced that the next consumer survey will be published on 23 October 2026.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).