The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) expects the global average temperature to temporarily rise above 1.5 degrees compared with pre-industrial levels in the coming years. The report, published on Wednesday, describes an expected peak in warming of around 1.8 to 2.0 degrees, but stresses that a subsequent fall back below 1.5 degrees remains achievable if emissions are cut rapidly and permanently and carbon dioxide is also removed from the atmosphere. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the recent heatwaves, wildfires and floods a warning of what will become more frequent without rapid corrective action.
For Spain The findings are directly relevant to Spain. According to data from the national daily mortality monitoring system (MoMo) and analyses by media outlets such as RTVE several thousand deaths in Summer 2026 were attributed to exceptionally high temperatures. At the same time, prolonged drought and numerous wildfires increased pressure on health services, infrastructure and agriculture. Expert agencies such as the Instituto de Salud Carlos III have been pointing out for years that older people, those with chronic illnesses and outdoor workers are particularly at risk.
The UNEP report does not assign new blame to individual countries, but calls for faster and deeper emissions cuts overall, particularly in countries with high historical emissions. It frames the expected overshoot as a consequence of inadequate global climate policy, while also highlighting the options for action that remain. The temperature assessment is based on the Paris Agreement’s target range, which sets 1.5 degrees as a guideline.
For Spain, this has consequences on three levels. First, immediate protection: robust heat warning systems, preventive healthcare, cooling and shading plans in cities, and improved forest management. Second, faster emissions reductions: expanding renewable energy, improving energy efficiency in buildings and industry, and transforming transport and agriculture. Third, preparedness adapted to unavoidable risks: water management in drought-stricken areas, heat-resilient infrastructure and protection for particularly vulnerable groups.
Reported heat-related deaths are statistical estimates based on mortality models and are subject to uncertainty; they nonetheless illustrate the scale of damage that has already occurred. The projections in the UNEP report are model-based and depend on scenarios. There is agreement that every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions avoided shortens and reduces the overshoot – thereby also lowering the risks for people in Spain and around the world.
Editor: Andreas M. Brucker (Article created with AI assistance).