Several polls published in Spain and internal party tracking polls from early October 2026 put the party Vox close to 70 MPs in the Congreso de los Diputados. Political observers and representatives of the PSOE see this as a possible balance of power that would further narrow the Partido Popular ’s room to secure a majority on its own. These are projections, not official results; they describe a possible development ahead of the forthcoming parliamentary elections.
The debate gained immediate significance following a specific vote: on 2 October 2026 the plenary session of the Congreso de los Diputados rejected the validation of two Real Decrees on housing policy . Following the parliamentary defeat, the government submitted the measures to the Council of Ministers again in revised form. During the period leading up to new elections, the Diputación Permanente has a particularly important role, as it carries out limited parliamentary functions when the chambers are dissolved. The episode illustrates how narrow the balance of power currently is and how strongly smaller blocs can influence decisions.
In the PSOE’s view, a figure of around 70 seats would significantly increase Vox’s bargaining power: the closer the balance between the major parties, the more likely the Partido Popular is to become dependent on other forces to achieve a majority, if it cannot secure a stable majority without their support. Whether such a situation would make a future parliamentary term “almost impossible” is a political judgement. The decisive measure remains the actual distribution of seats after the election and the parties’ coalition or confidence-and-supply decisions.
Structurally, the D’Hondt method determines how votes are translated into seats in 52 constituencies. In provinces with few seats, leftover votes matter particularly, benefiting parties with strong regional support and raising the barriers to single-party majorities. In a fragmented chamber, committees and standing orders also become more important, shaping the scope for action available to minority governments or ad hoc majorities.
The assumption of “Vox on around 70 seats” is therefore a politically significant scenario, not a foregone result. The facts are: the rejection of validation of the royal decrees on housing policy, their subsequent reapproval by the Council of Ministers, and the narrow parliamentary arithmetic. Whether this leads to a lasting impasse will only be decided at the ballot box – and in the subsequent negotiations in the Congreso de los Diputados.
Editor: Phillipe Schmidt-Araguin (Article created with AI assistance).