A new report by the New Economics Foundation commissioned by Transport & Environment estimates that the expected growth in air traffic could increase average rents in Spain by around €217 a year over the next five years. Regions heavily dependent on tourism, such as the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islandsare expected to be particularly affected. The authors pair their forecast with a policy recommendation: suspend planned airport expansions and recalibrate tourism and transport policy.
The analysis assesses available data on flight capacity, tourist numbers and housing-market indicators, and models how additional arrivals could increase demand for rental homes. The figure cited is equivalent to an average of around €18 a month; according to the study, regional effects could be considerably higher. NEF economist Alex Chapman told elDiario.es that stronger increases are expected in coastal and island areas with particularly high demand, while regions with less tourism activity would be less affected. These are projections, and whether they materialise will depend on traffic volumes, regulation and local construction activity.
The report comes amid heated debate about the sustainability of mass tourism. Aena is driving an investment programme of around €13 billion to expand Spain’s airport network, according to elDiario.es. At the same time, Spanish airports have often been operating at capacity this summer, and in Mallorca media reports say the largest protest against mass tourism in years took place. Against this backdrop, the study is explicitly aimed at decision-makers in Spain.
On distribution, NEF argues that property owners and short-term rental providers benefit disproportionately from rising tourist numbers, while lower-income renter households bear the higher housing costs. Transport & Environment is therefore calling for a moratorium on airport expansion and recommends complementary measures in the housing market, including tighter regulation of holiday rentals and an increase in the supply of affordable housing.
Methodological limitations remain: the estimates model average and scenario effects; local markets may differ considerably. Actual developments will depend on government intervention, investment decisions and future travel patterns. For specific local measures, the authors recommend further assessments by public authorities and independent statistical and market monitoring, to establish regional differences reliably.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).