On 3 October 2026 the state weather agency AEMET warned of further thunderstorms and locally heavy rain, particularly on Spain’s east coast. According to regional advance warnings, areas in Catalonia and in the region of Valenciaare affected, with 20 to 30 litres per square metre possible in a short time. Lines of showers with lightning and strong gusts may also develop across the Iberian Peninsula as a whole. AEMET attributes the conditions to the interaction of Atlantic low-pressure systems and moist Mediterranean air, leading to convective activity along the coast.
At the same time, AEMET’s latest seasonal forecast expects the autumn quarter from October to December 2026 to be very likely warmer than the climatological average. The agency points to the pronounced warmth of the summer half-year of 2026 and an exceptionally warm September 2026, which ranks among the peak months in the series of measurements dating back to 1961. The Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) had already documented markedly positive temperature anomalies for July and August 2026.
The expert agencies distinguish between short-term weather hazards and the medium-term climate signal: in the short term, heavy rainfall is likely in some coastal provinces, bringing flooding in low-lying areas, reduced visibility and aquaplaning. Local strong gusts along advancing thunderstorm lines may also further disrupt traffic. In densely built-up areas in particular, heavy rain can overwhelm urban drainage systems, while underpasses and low-lying streets are vulnerable. AEMET issues official warning levels and daily updated situation reports; regional services and local authorities use them for operational decisions.
In the medium term, much of Spain is expected to remain significantly warmer than usual; regional rainfall patterns may vary, with wet spells at times on the east and north-east coasts and drier periods inland. Such probabilistic statements describe trends across areas and time periods but do not replace a daily forecast. Short-term warning levels are therefore key for travel and traffic planning, while the seasonal forecast mainly provides guidance for agriculture, water management and energy planning. AEMET provides accompanying climate reports and datasets through its climate service and Open Data portal; MITECO supplements these with monthly and seasonal summaries of the development of temperature anomalies in Spain.
Editor: Mira Cadena (Article created with AI assistance).