Murcia’s economy is expected to grow more strongly than the Spanish average between 2026 and 2028. This is according to a scenario presented on 10 October 2026 by the Cátedra de Competitividad , which forecasts average annual growth of 2.4 per cent for Murcia and 2.1 per cent for Spain . The figures are based on forecasts by the regional Hispalinkteam at the Universidad de Murcia, which the Cátedra incorporates into its overall scenario.
Hispalink expects moderate, gradual growth deceleration in each year: 3.0 per cent in 2026, 2.3 per cent in 2027 and 1.9 per cent in 2028. The Cátedra de Competitividad presents this projected trajectory as a model-based estimate and points out that these are not figures already recorded.
The published summary indicates that Murcia’s regional growth is expected to outpace the national rate on average. The statement does not provide detailed figures for sector contributions, employment projections or distributional effects. For these, the Cátedra refers readers to the full dossier, which explains the assumptions underlying the model and includes its methodology and tables.
The Cátedra de Competitividad is a collaboration between the Colegio de Economistas of the Region Murcia and the Universidad de Murcia, together with Campus Mare Nostrum. It produces regional economic forecasts at regular intervals using the Hispalink model. Previous publications had already pointed to Murcia’s relatively robust performance, while always noting uncertainties and external risk factors.
If the forecast trajectory is confirmed, Murcia would once again grow faster than the national average over the three-year period from 2026 to 2028. This could affect regional financial planning, location decisions and the direction of economic policy programmes. At the same time, the outlook remains dependent on factors such as export demand, energy and input costs, monetary policy and economic conditions in Europe. Weather-related effects on agriculture and the food industry, which play an important role in Murcia, could also cause actual results to diverge from the modelled trajectories.
The figures presented are forecasts and are therefore based on assumptions. The statement contains no information about future measures by the regional government or specific investment programmes; these would require an analysis of the full study materials.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).