A poll published on 4 October 2026 by La Vanguardia the polling institute Ipsos records a sharp rise for Aliança Catalana. According to the poll, the party led by Sílvia Orriols in the Parliament of Catalonia would rise from two seats to around 30, drawing level in terms of seats with the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya . La Vanguardia gives the fieldwork dates as 23 September to 1 October 2026 and reports that 2,000 interviews were conducted.
The projection suggests a far more fragmented parliament than at present. Alongside the major gains for Aliança Catalana, Ipsos records a significant fall for the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya, from 42 to around 30 seats. Junts per Catalunya would be among the biggest losers, falling from 35 to around 16 seats. The Partido Popular would have around 11 seats, while the Comuns would have around four. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya would make slight gains. Overall, the poll points to greater difficulty in forming a government: a clear majority would be out of reach for both traditional centre-left groupings and previously tested alliances of pro-independence parties.
The Ipsos figures are a snapshot of preferences during the survey period, not a forecast of a specific election result. Changes due to mobilisation, campaign events or questions around candidates remain possible. Nevertheless, several media outlets consistently report strong growth for Aliança Catalana and losses for established parties; differences mainly concern the finer details for smaller lists.
Politically, the projected balance of forces changes the negotiating dynamics in Barcelona. If the trend holds until an election, majorities would require new and, in some cases, unfamiliar alliances. The rise of a distinctly right-wing force such as Aliança Catalana also makes rapprochement more difficult, as other parties are drawing clear lines between themselves and it. For now, parties are responding by analysing the data and sounding out possible scenarios. On the day of publication, no concrete coalition preferences had been declared.
This report refers to the publication of 4 October 2026 and the key details given there about the fieldwork period and sample.
Editor: Mira Cadena (Article created with AI assistance).