From Wednesday, 16 September 2026, Spain will see markedly cooler and more unsettled weather. According to the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and private forecasters, an upper-level trough (Vaguada) is extending southwards from the polar-front jet, destabilising the atmosphere, especially in the east and north of the country. This will bring intense thunderstorms with heavy rain, locally stormy gusts and hail in some places. Temperatures will also fall sharply in the north.
The areas most affected are Catalonia and the Balearic Islands as well as stretches of the Mediterranean coast. Forecasts there point to localised intense thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in some areas. AEMET has issued relevant warnings, which may be adjusted at short notice depending on how conditions develop. A noticeable drop in temperature is expected in the north of the country: in cities such as Burgos maximum temperatures are expected to fall from around 32 degrees Celsius on Tuesday to about 20 degrees Celsius on Wednesday — a drop of up to 12 degrees. Significantly lower temperatures are also forecast in parts of Castile and León .
Southern Spain, by contrast, will remain warm, although less hot than in recent days. In Andalusia high temperatures are still possible, but in many places they will be a few degrees below the peaks of recent days. The model forecasts show a more moderate cooling here, while thunderstorm activity is concentrated further east and north.
Meteored and other forecasting services stress that the location, timing and intensity of individual thunderstorms are subject to considerable uncertainty. The broad pattern — an advancing trough, cooling in the north and a risk of thunderstorms in the east — is considered consistent, but local variations are likely. AEMET advises people to follow its regularly updated warnings, as heavy rain over a short period can cause flooding and strong gusts may temporarily disrupt transport routes.
The first signs of the change were already evident on Tuesday: dense clouds gathered in Galicia, Asturias and Cantabria, with light rain in some places. At the same time, temperatures initially remained high in the east, centre and south, with highs of more than 36 degrees Celsius in some areas. Lower-level heat warnings were in force in several regions on Tuesday. The arrival of the upper-level trough from Wednesday is likely to bring the hot spell to an end in many places, giving way to more autumnal weather across much of the country.
Editor: Andreas M. Brucker (Article created with AI assistance).