The Spanish economic think tank Funcas warns in an analysis published on 9 September 2026 that the state’s annual interest payments could rise to more than €60 billion by 2030. The drivers, it says, are higher long-term interest rates, the expiry of government bonds with very low coupons, and continued financing needs that will have to be refinanced or funded afresh in the coming years. In its baseline scenario, Funcas estimates an increase of around 50 per cent compared with the 2025 level, while stressing that the projection is uncertain.
Factual context: The trend depends largely on the future yield curve, the maturity structure of the outstanding debt portfolio and the volume of issuance. The Banco de España projects rising interest costs in the second half of the decade if monetary policy continues to normalise and purchases by the Europäische Zentralbank are scaled back further. In addition, every percentage-point rise in average refinancing costs increases the budget’s sensitivity to interest-rate and maturity risks. This effect is delayed because the stock of long-term securities is replaced with new terms only gradually.
Attributed statements: Funcas stresses that the range of possible outcomes remains wide. If market yields are lower or nominal growth in Spain is higher than assumed, the annual interest bill would be lower. Conversely, a longer period of elevated rates or greater financing needs would accelerate the increase in the burden. The Ministerio de Hacienda notes in current budget documents the need to incorporate financing costs into the medium-term framework, but gives no explicit target figure for 2030.
Implications for fiscal policy: Rising interest payments narrow the room for manoeuvre in the budget. Funding for investment or day-to-day spending comes under pressure, while the scope for tax relief diminishes. At the same time, higher debt-service ratios increase vulnerability to external shocks, such as weaker growth, tighter financing conditions or geopolitical risks. This makes fiscal prioritisation, more efficient spending management and a cautious issuance policy increasingly important.
Assessment: Funcas’s warning addresses a structural trend already visible in the Spanish central bank’s model projections. It is not inevitable, but it is a realistic scenario: if interest rates remain moderately higher than during the years of zero rates and refinancing needs persist, Spain’s annual interest bill is likely to reach around €60 billion by 2030.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).