The Europäische Zentralbank published the July results of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). It found that both perceived inflation and short-term inflation expectations expectations among households edged down, while the outlook for income and Consumer spending remains subdued. The Banco de España circulated the notice for Spain; fieldwork ran from 2 to 27 July 2026.
Specifically, in July 2026 the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months fell to 3.5 per cent (June: 3.6). Inflation expected over the next 12 months fell to 2.9 per cent (3.0), and the expectation for three years fell to 2.7 per cent (2.8). Short-term inflation expectations are therefore continuing to trend downwards, but overall remain above the central bank’s medium-term price target. The CES measures respondents’ expectations and perceptions; it is not an official price index.
Households continue to report a subdued picture for income and consumption. Income expectations for the next 12 months edged down to 1.0 per cent (1.1). Perceived growth in nominal consumer spending over the previous 12 months was unchanged at 5.1 per cent; expected consumer spending for the next 12 months remained at 3.6 per cent. The expectation for economic growth over the next 12 months improved to minus 1.2 per cent (minus 1.4). The Unemployment rate is currently estimated at 10.6 per cent; respondents expect it to be 11.2 per cent in 12 months’ time. These figures reflect survey responses and should not be equated with official labour market statistics.
Responses present a mixed picture for the housing and credit markets. Households expect House prices to continue rising by 3.4 per cent over the next 12 months. Expected mortgage interest rates fell slightly to 4.9 per cent (5.0). The net share of respondents reporting tighter access to credit over the previous 12 months rose; at the same time, the shares expecting further tightening over the next 12 months fell. The share of households that applied for a loan in the past three months increased to 14.3 per cent (13.4).
The CES is a monthly online survey in eleven Eurozone countries and provides high-frequency indicators on price perceptions, inflation expectations and household finances. The results feed into the European Central Bank’s monetary policy analysis as a complement. According to the schedule, the next release, covering August data, is due on 18 September 2026.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).