Spanish and international weather services reported on 22 September 2026 that El Niño in the tropical Pazifik. Sea temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific are well above the El Niño threshold, supporting seasonal forecasts that expect Spain a mostly mild winter. The informal label “Niño Godzilla” has reappeared in public debate to describe the exceptional strength of the current event; it is not, however, a scientific classification.
The Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA states in its latest ENSO assessments that sea-surface temperature anomalies have become established and are highly likely to persist into autumn and winter. The Copernicus Climate Change Service shows a trend towards above-average temperatures in its latest seasonal forecasts for Europe. For Spain, the model averages suggest westerly weather patterns that could bring low-pressure systems from the Atlantic to the Iberian Peninsula more frequently.
The Agencia Estatal de Meteorología highlights two points for the coming months: first, Spain as a whole is more likely to experience milder conditions, particularly in low-lying areas; second, the regional distribution of rainfall remains uncertain. Northern and western Spain could be affected repeatedly by Atlantic storm systems, while greater variability is possible in the Mediterranean region. AEMET also stresses that even in an overall mild pattern, individual notable cold spells cannot be ruled out—particularly if large-scale weather patterns temporarily shift.
Experts clearly distinguish between the available data and its interpretation: Pacific measurement series form the basis of the forecasts, but El Niño mainly affects statistical probabilities. Regional effects in Spain also depend on internal atmospheric variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Forecasts of heavy rain, storms or cold snaps more than a few weeks ahead therefore remain subject to considerable uncertainty.
For the Winter 2026/27 is therefore a plausible baseline scenario: Spain will generally experience milder temperatures than the climatological average more often, accompanied by more frequent westerly weather patterns and a higher probability of deep Atlantic low-pressure systems. Short cold spells are also possible. Authorities advise following short-term assessments and warnings from AEMET, as these reflect unavoidable regional differences and rapid developments more accurately.
Editor: Mira Cadena (Article created with AI assistance).