Record-high diesel margins in September have heightened fears of renewed energy tensions this autumn. According to standard industry trading data, the gap between the price of diesel and that of crude oil in the United States reached a record US$112.17 per barrel; in Europe the figure stood at around US$98 at the start of the month, more than double the June average of US$44.75. At the same time, the benchmark price Brent has recently hovered around US$104 per barrel. This means that the key factor is not so much the price of crude oil alone as the availability of refined products.
The International Energy Agency attributes the worsening situation primarily to supply disruptions in Russia and in the Middle East, reduced exports from major refining regions and very high utilisation of the remaining facilities. It warns that global supply losses are greater than previously expected and are hitting Europe particularly hard. The shortage mainly affects middle distillates such as diesel, which is essential for lorry transport, agriculture and parts of industry.
Spain is feeling the impact at the pumps and throughout supply chains. Fuel prices have risen noticeably in recent weeks; transport associations report that freight rates are being renegotiated, and logistics companies are recalculating fuel surcharges more frequently. Farms are also reporting higher operating costs during the harvest and autumn season. Industry sources in Madrid also note that, although high refining profitability is boosting companies' earnings, it is not easing prices for end customers. Petrol station operators and associations had recently urged the government to consider possible relief measures.
The reason for the price spread is a structurally tight diesel supply. European refineries have adjusted capacity in recent years, while geopolitical shifts have altered trade flows. Sanctions and counter-sanctions against Russia are making procurement more difficult, alternative sources of supply are limited, and seasonal maintenance is further reducing supply. Although Spain has significant refining capacity, it is closely integrated into European product markets and can therefore do little to dampen price surges.
In the short term, market observers expect consumer prices and transport costs to remain volatile. The political focus is shifting to the duration and targeting of any national relief measures, possible European coordination to secure product flows, and medium-term investment in capacity and storage. Whether diesel margins return to normal over the rest of the autumn will depend largely on supply conditions, the weather and demand trends in transport and agriculture.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).