The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas on 14 September 2026 preliminary data from its Barómetro de septiembre 2026 published. It puts the PSOE on 31.0 per cent of estimated voting intention, with the Partido Popular on 25.5 per cent. The gap between the two parties is therefore 5.5 percentage points, wider than in July, when it stood at 4.2 points. For other parties with nationwide relevance, the barometer gives Vox16.6 per cent, Sumar 5.7 per cent and Podemos 3.7 per cent.
The survey was conducted in early September. Its publication comes against the backdrop of mass border crossings into Ceuta on 30 July and the ongoing strain on the city. The data nevertheless reflect the situation after these events. The poll figures alone do not support firm causal conclusions about the impact of individual events; further analysis would be needed.
According to the report, the PSOE remains the leading party in the institute’s national voting-intention estimate. Compared with July, the Socialists are slightly down, while the Partido Popular has gained, according to summaries in the Spanish media. The precise interpretation of the changes depends on the basis for comparison and rounding. In its methodological notes, the institute headed by José Félix Tezanos points to key parameters such as sample size, weighting, non-response and statistical margins of error, which must be taken into account when assessing small differences.
The publication has drawn close political attention in Spain because the picture of public opinion following the incidents in Ceuta is seen as a test of Pedro Sánchez’s government’s handling of the conflict and the Partido Popular’s opposition strategy. At the same time, medium-term trends show that the gap between the major parties can fluctuate significantly over the course of the year. This is particularly true of surveys published as preliminary data, as with the Barómetro de septiembre 2026, and later supplemented by full tables and detailed analysis. Reliable comparisons depend on consistent data points, identical question wording and cross-checking against other reputable polls.
Regardless of the day-to-day debate, the latest barometer confirms that the PSOE is maintaining its lead, while the Partido Popular has failed to close the gap. Competition remains tight among smaller parties: Vox is steady in the upper teens, while Sumar and Podemos are well below that.
Editor: Phillipe Schmidt-Araguin (Article created with AI assistance).