The Banco de España on 9 October 2026 its Proyecciones macroeconómicas de la economía española for the third quarter. The updated assessment highlights increased uncertainty due to rising energy prices. These raise the cost of production and consumption, but, alongside government support measures, dampen measured price pressures in the short term and put a strain on public finances.
The report identifies three findings. First, the global economy has so far proved resilient. Second, inflationary pressures remain high, partly because oil and gas prices have started rising again since the middle of the year, feeding into the energy component of consumer prices. Third, while energy support measures reduce immediate price pressures for households and businesses in 2026, they narrow fiscal headroom and increase the budget deficit.
The analysis by the Dirección General de Economía emphasises the pivotal role of commodity and energy markets. Higher and more volatile energy prices, it says, prolong the risk of persistent Inflation and put particular pressure on the margins of energy-intensive sectors. At the same time, uncertainty and higher financing costs could curb investment and delay consumer decisions.
The projections reflect the effects of monetary policy through market-based interest rate expectations. They also model alternative paths, including scenarios with further rate moves in the euro area. The aim is to show the range of possible effects on borrowing costs, investment and demand transparently, without assigning a higher probability to any one path.
On fiscal policy, the Banco de España stresses that relief measures should be targeted and temporary. Support should cushion social hardship but include clear exit paths, so as not to undermine fiscal sustainability, structural change or competitiveness. The report also warns against making temporary measures permanent, in order to avoid perverse incentives.
The Proyecciones macroeconómicas therefore provide an updated evidence base for economic policy decisions in Spain. The published report gives specific figures for growth, inflation and the budget balance; its assessment explicitly places the current outlook in the context of heightened uncertainty from external shocks. For policymakers and markets, the message is clear: energy costs remain a key risk factor for economic developments and the budget position this year.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).