As at 19 October 2026: a consensus compiled by Bloomberg analysts expects the six largest Spanish banks – Banco Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Banco Sabadell, Bankinter and Unicaja – to have posted cumulative net earnings of more than €29.2 billion by the end of September 2026. Several Spanish media outlets reported this figure over the weekend and on Monday. It will not be confirmed until the banks publish their forthcoming interim results.
If the projection proves accurate, profits would be around 15 per cent higher than in the same period of 2025. Analysts cite higher interest income following the rise in eurozone interest rates and strong fee income, particularly from fund and insurance business, as the main drivers. The environment remains shaped by the European Central Bank’s rate rises; the Euribor was above the three per cent mark at times. Activity often declines seasonally in the third quarter, so observers consider the nine-month period a more meaningful reference point.
Analysts also distinguish between business models: globally active banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA are seen as somewhat better positioned in the current economic climate than more domestically focused institutions such as CaixaBank, Banco Sabadell, Bankinter and Unicaja. Broader geographical and currency diversification can cushion fluctuations in interest rates and the economy, while domestic banks depend more heavily on trends in Spanish loan demand and competition for deposits.
Over the coming days and weeks, the market will focus on three key figures in particular: first, net interest income, which has benefited from the shift in interest rates in recent quarters; second, fee income from securities and insurance business; and third, provisions for risk. Higher rates support margins in the short term, but if the economy weakens they can affect credit quality in the medium term and lead to higher impairment charges.
It is important to note that these are consensus estimates for now. The media outlets cited refer to Bloomberg’s compilation as a guide to the reporting season, not as audited group figures. The final assessment of the earnings strength of Spain’s major banks through September 2026 will depend on their reviewed interim results, which are now being published one by one.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).