The Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal (AIReF) expects the Comunidad Foral de Navarra to post a budget surplus of around 1% of gross domestic product in 2027, but considers a breach of the national spending rule likely. This is set out in the authority’s assessment of the 2027 budget plans, presented on 4 November.
According to AIReF’s estimate, Navarre will end 2026 with a higher surplus (more than 2% of gross domestic product). For 2027, despite the positive balance, the authority forecasts a sharp rise of 5.3% in the spending measure relevant to the rule, known as “gasto computable”. This would exceed the 4% reference rate and breach the national spending rule. AIReF stresses that this is a forecast, the outcome of which depends on the actual implementation and classification of the regional government’s investments under the 2025–2028 programme.
A key question is whether around 833 million euros in planned investments under Real Decreto-ley 23/2026 are excluded from the calculation of gasto computable. In AIReF’s scenario, this distinction could determine whether the rule is complied with or formally breached. The final assessment depends on how the relevant provisions are applied by the competent authorities.
For the European fiscal framework, AIReF also expects stronger growth in primary expenditure, since the investment exemptions mentioned above do not apply there. It forecasts increases of 9% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027. Regardless of the budget balance, the authority thus highlights the difference between formal spending rules and the trend in overall budget expenditure.
AIReF expects Navarra’s debt to fall further, from around 9.5% at the end of 2025 to about 6.3% by the end of 2027. This would be consistent with the expected surplus, but depends on there being no permanent spending increases or structural revenue shortfalls without offsetting measures.
AIReF recommends that the regional government publish its assumptions about the national spending rule transparently and urges caution over permanent measures. The report’s main point is that surpluses do not automatically ensure compliance with formal spending rules if the level of expenditure covered by the rule grows significantly faster than the permitted reference rate.
Editor: Mira Cadena (Article created with AI assistance).